AI Expert Marcus Disputes Claims of Human Extinction Risk
For the past six months, Gary Marcus, an expert in the field, has been warning against the rapid growth and implementation of artificial intelligence, ever since the emergence of the popular poem-generating program, ChatGPT.
But against the AI apocalypse, a New York University professor emeritus told AFP in a recent interview that the technology’s existential threats may be “overstated” at the moment.
“I’m not personally concerned about the threat of extinction, at least not yet, because the scenarios are not concrete,” Marcus said in San Francisco.
“The general problem that I’m concerned about … is that we’re building AI systems that we don’t have good control over, and I think that creates a lot of risk, (but) it’s probably not existential in the literal sense. .”
Long before ChatGPT, Marcus designed his first AI program in high school—one to translate Latin into English—and after years of studying child psychology, founded Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company that was later acquired by Uber.
Why artificial intelligence?
In March, so upset that ChatGPT creator OpenAI launched the latest, most powerful AI model with Microsoft, Marcus signed an open letter with more than 1,000 people, including Elon Musk, calling for a global halt to AI development.
However, he did not sign last week’s brief statement by business leaders and professionals – including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman – that caused an uproar.
The signatories demand that world leaders must work to reduce the “extinction risk” posed by artificial intelligence technology.
The one-line statement said that tackling AI risks should be “a global priority, alongside other societal risks such as pandemics and nuclear war”.
Among the signatories were those building systems with the goal of achieving “general” artificial intelligence, technology that brings cognitive abilities to the same level as humans.
“If you really think there’s an existential risk, why are you working on this at all? That’s a very fair question,” Marcus said.
Instead of focusing on far-fetched scenarios where no one survives, society should pay attention to where the real dangers lie, Marcus predicted.
“People might try to manipulate the market with artificial intelligence to cause all kinds of chaos, and then we might, for example, blame the Russians and say, ‘Look what they’ve done to our country,’ when the Russians weren’t actually involved,” he continued.
“(You can) have this escalation that ends in a nuclear war or something. So I think there are scenarios where it’s very dangerous. Extinction? I don’t know.”
a threat to democracy
In the short term, the psychology expert is concerned about democracy.
Generative AI software is producing more and more fake photos and soon videos at low cost.
As a result, “people who are better at spreading disinformation are going to win elections, and those people can change the rules and make it harder for democracy to progress.”
Further: “Democracy is based on getting reasonable information and making good decisions. If no one knows what to believe, how can you move forward in a democracy?”
However, the author of “Rebooting AI” doesn’t think we should give up hope, and we’re still seeing “a lot of upside.”
Marcus said there is certainly a chance that yet-to-be-invented AI could “help science, medicine and hospice.”
“But in the short term, I feel like we’re not ready. There’s going to be damage along the way and we really need to up our game, we need to come up with some serious regulation,” he said.
At a U.S. Senate hearing in May, Marcus supported OpenAI alongside Altman to establish a national or international agency responsible for managing artificial intelligence.
The idea is also supported by Altmann, who has just returned from a European tour where he urged political leaders to find the “right balance” between security and innovation.
But be careful not to leave power to corporations, Marcus warned.
“The last few months have been a real reminder that the big companies that are in the lead are not necessarily interested in the rest of us,” he warned.
